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A powerful El Niño is rapidly building in the Pacific and is expected to reach strong intensity between July and September, according to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In its latest monthly climate update released Friday, the agency said the phenomenon has already begun—and with it, the likelihood of extreme weather events around the world has sharply increased.
A Climate Pattern With Global Reach
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in which Pacific sea-surface temperatures rise, disrupting global wind systems, air pressure, and rainfall. Scientists classify its strength as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The WMO currently places the developing 2026 event at the second-highest level.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the intensifying El Niño could trigger severe drought, extreme rainfall, and dangerous heatwaves—both on land and at sea. She emphasized the need for expanded early-warning systems, saying advanced seasonal forecasts are essential “to save lives and cushion the impacts on our economies and communities.”
Why El Niño Matters
Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water westward across the Pacific, allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to rise along the South American coast. But when air pressure shifts, these winds weaken—or even reverse direction. Warm water then flows back toward the coast, halting the usual exchange of warm and cold layers. This shift triggers a chain reaction that affects weather patterns across continents, often for months.
Lessons From Recent Years
The year 2024 became the hottest ever recorded, driven in part by El Niño’s influence. The phenomenon typically appears every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. While human-caused climate change does not make El Niño more frequent or inherently stronger, the WMO notes it can amplify its impacts—as seen in 2023 and 2024, when heatwaves, floods, and marine warming intensified.
What to Expect in 2026
Meteorologists warn that the coming months could bring:
- Extreme heat in many regions
- Drought conditions affecting agriculture and water supply
- Heavy rainfall and heightened flood risks
- Marine heatwaves threatening coral reefs and fisheries
Governments and communities are urged to prepare for disruptions—from crop losses to infrastructure strain—as the Pacific climate engine shifts into a more volatile phase.
- source: oe24.at/picture: pixabay.com
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